AGL kicks off the age of large solar

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This dated news record has been reorganised for clear reading and connected to current guidance.

Publication date: August 1, 2013.

Status note: Present-tense statements, market figures, deadlines and program details in the archived record belong to its publication date. Check current official sources before making a decision.

What this article reported

> In 2020, the last year of Australia's Renewable Energy Target, more large-scale solar capacity will be brought online than wind capacity, according to the latest forecasts from analysts Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The news, which comes as Australia's largest solar project gets the go-ahead, shakes up the thinking that wind will be the only utility-scale renewables focus through to the end of the decade.

Read more: http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/8/1/solar-energy/agl-kicks-age-large-solar#ixzz2agqfwooJ

How to use this information now

For current use, confirm the applicable scheme rules, regulator notices, market date and reporting period. Keep historical prices or forecasts separate from present quotes and verified outcomes.

Separate source-reported facts from forecasts, targets and commentary. For a current project, retain the official source, version, effective date, assumptions and decision record in the evidence file.

What was the significance of the 2020 Renewable Energy Target deadline for solar and wind capacity in Australia?

The 2020 deadline marked the end of Australia's Renewable Energy Target scheme. By that year, forecasters predicted that large-scale solar capacity additions would exceed wind capacity for the first time, reversing the previous expectation that wind would dominate utility-scale renewables through the decade. This shift reflected changing technology costs and market conditions. After 2030, the Renewable Energy Target scheme ends entirely, though the REGO (Renewable Electricity Guarantee of Origin) scheme continues beyond that date, allowing facilities to continue participating in renewable energy markets through different certificate pathways.

Why does the transition from wind to solar capacity matter for renewable energy planning?

The shift signals changing economics and technical feasibility in renewable energy deployment. Solar and wind have different operational characteristics, grid integration requirements and geographic suitability. Understanding which technologies are expanding helps businesses and grid operators plan procurement, investment and infrastructure needs. For facilities considering renewable energy projects, this trend supports solar feasibility assessments and investment cases. It also influences certificate availability under different renewable pathways—STCs for smaller solar systems and LGCs for larger installations—which affect project funding and commercial viability.

What renewable energy certificate options are available for large-scale solar projects like those forecast in the article?

Large-scale solar installations can create Large-scale Generation Certificates (LGCs) under Australia's Renewable Energy Target, or participate in the REGO scheme for renewable electricity attributes. These certificates represent renewable electricity and can be sold to support renewable-electricity claims. Facilities may also participate in state-based schemes: Victorian Energy Upgrades for eligible activities, or NSW Energy Savings Scheme for efficiency improvements alongside solar. The choice between pathways depends on project size, commissioning date, intended claim and applicable regulations. As of October 1, 2026, solar PV eligibility under STCs expanded from 100 kW to 1 MW, affecting smaller-scale project economics.

How should a business evaluate a large-scale solar project investment in the context of changing renewable markets?

A comprehensive investment case should separate technical feasibility, operating merit and financial support mechanisms. Document the site's energy consumption, available roof or land space, grid connection capacity and operational constraints. Model the project with and without conditional certificate revenue, as scheme eligibility and pricing are uncertain. Establish measurement and verification requirements early if certificates are intended, as baseline data collection often cannot be recovered retrospectively. Our approach includes energy audits to identify opportunities, feasibility studies to assess solar potential, measurement planning for verification, and procurement assessment for renewable certificates and financing pathways.

What evidence and planning is required before committing to a large solar installation?

Before commitment, gather solar irradiance data, roof or site structural assessments, electrical system capacity analysis and shading studies. Confirm grid connection requirements and any restrictions. Establish a clear baseline of current energy consumption using interval meter data if available. If pursuing certificate revenue, confirm the applicable scheme (LGCs, STCs, VEU or NSW ESS depending on location and size), understand its current eligibility requirements, and engage a qualified advisor early. Document the project timeline including feasibility approval, final investment decision and commissioning dates, as these matter for scheme eligibility. Measurement and verification planning should occur before installation to ensure required baseline data is captured.

How does the growth in large-scale solar affect renewable electricity claims and environmental reporting?

Increased solar capacity expands options for purchasing renewable electricity attributes through certificates. For organisations making renewable-electricity claims, this provides more supply and potentially broader technology choice. However, the specific evidence required is stringent: purchasing renewable certificates alone does not establish every possible claim about an organisation's emissions reductions. The applicable reporting framework (NGER, sustainability reporting, ASRS or other standards) determines what instruments and evidence are required. Organisations must distinguish between physical energy reductions, purchased renewable attributes, and carbon offsets—each serves different accounting purposes. Our carbon advisory and renewable certificate services help businesses establish eligible instruments, manage ownership evidence, and structure retirement strategies aligned with their reporting obligations.

What role do renewable energy certificates play in making large solar projects commercially viable?

Renewable energy certificates (LGCs, REGOs or state-based certificates) generate separate revenue from electricity sales, improving project economics. However, certificate quantity, scheme eligibility, verification costs and market prices are independent variables—a project's technical merit should be assessed separately from incentive assumptions. Before including certificate proceeds in an investment case, confirm the governing activity, document version, eligibility assumptions, calculation basis and evidence responsibilities. Show certificate price and quantity assumptions distinctly from energy savings. Funding assessment should evaluate grants, certificates and financing separately. A project can remain worthwhile without unconfirmed incentives; conversely, certificate eligibility does not establish that equipment is appropriate or economically attractive for the site's operational requirements.

Why is measurement and verification important for large-scale solar projects pursuing certificate revenue?

Measurement and verification establishes the actual energy generation and savings claimed under a certificate scheme. Different schemes (RET, REGO, VEU, NSW ESS) have specific M&V requirements, methods and evidence thresholds. Baseline data collection cannot be recovered after installation; measurement planning must occur during project scoping. A comprehensive M&V brief should identify the project boundary, baseline conditions, measurement instruments, data quality standards and calculation methodology before work begins. For large installations, the choice between prescribed methods and project-based measurement-and-verification approaches affects evidence requirements and scheme eligibility. Our M&V services include project-boundary selection, baseline modelling, savings calculation and reporting aligned with applicable scheme rules.

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